The Conflict – Both Iran and Russia have urgent reasons to have attempted to change the trajectory of global politics right now by encouraging/enabling Hamas’ barbaric attack on Israel:
- Putin is losing in Ukraine, the West is revitalized and stronger. Putin’s hope is that war in the Middle East distracts the US and Europe, lessens their resolve to keep funding and fighting in Ukraine. On cue, we are already seeing calls from Russian-aligned Republicans to shift funding from Ukraine to Israel.
- The US-Saudi-Israeli peace dealthe three countries have been negotiating is an enormous threat to the Russian-Iranian axis in the Middle East. More on this in coming days.
- Gas prices and inflation are coming down in the West. Middle East conflicts raise gas prices and fuel global inflation. Higher gas prices means more money for both countries, and Russians are counting on high inflation to weaken the resolve of the West. Putin has been using the global inflation he’s brought about through higher oil prices and his attacking of food supplies as a means of advancing his geopolitical aims.
- Democrats here in the US keep winning elections, Trump is degraded and not likely to win next year. Putin cannot count on Trump winning next year to change the course of the war in Ukraine.
Both Russia and Iran had significant motivation to support and encourage Hamas’ attack, but we should read what’s happening as a sign of desperation not a show of strength. Things are not going Iran and Russia’s way right now, as President Biden is helping renew global liberalism and the West when many autocrats thought it’s best days were behind us. Note this strong statement released last night. The West is strong, unified, resolute:
As Congress returns there are a few things we need to do now:
- Pass military aid packages for Ukraine and Israel
- Break the Tuberville blockade, fully staff the Pentagon
- Approve stalled Middle East Ambassadors and other State Dept officials, including the new Ambassador to Israel
- More forcefully call out the Republican Party for its years of appeasement and encouragement of Putin that has mightily contributed to the chaos and carnage we are seeing across the world today. For all their outrage right now what remains true is that a big chunk of the Republican Party is in an open alliance with the two countries who made this attack on Israel possible. We need to be clear here – Iran is fighting on Putin’s side in Ukraine, and cutting military aid to Ukraine helps Russia, Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah. Funding Ukraine is a way of supporting Israel. Cutting Ukraine funding helps Israel’s enemies.
- These are hard days right now. Really hard days. And even though it may not feel it right now, we are winning, and they are losing. Desperate men do desperate things. Slaughtering teenagers and abducting children is about as desperate as it gets. We need to take time to grieve – I know I do – but we have things to do, together, in the coming days. Most importantly let’s use all this sorry, anguish, outrage, worry and channel it into helping the good people of Virginia take their state back from MAGA. That and getting loud about the need for Congress to take sensible steps to protect America and our allies, and cease all this fifth column MAGA bullshit. We have things to do, peeps.