Why I Am Optimistic About 2024 – I’ve put together a dedicated page with my current electoral analysis, but want to review the toplines this morning:
- We keep winning elections – we won in 2018 and 2020, outpeformed all expectations in 2022, and did so again in 2023. Polling right now is having a hard time capturing the true dynamic in the American electorate. This recent wave of polling feels a bit red wavy to me as even though Biden was down a bit we had what was in essence a blue wave election on November 7th, which was proceeded by strong Dem electoral performances across the US throughout 2023. In 2022 Republicans could point to a few places they did well, despite our overall success. There was no place they could point to in 2023, anywhere in the country, on any day, in any election, where they did well. To me this is the most important electoral data out there, and is the central reason I am optimistic about 2024. When people vote, we just keep winning, and they keep struggling.
- Democrats are in a remarkable period of popular vote dominance – A new theory out there is that even though Dems keep performing well in these special elections, off year elections, mid-term elections, school board elections, run-off elections, mayoral elections, ballot initiatives in red states, and every type of election one can have somehow when the electorate gets bigger next year we will struggle. But what has actually happened as the electorate has gotten bigger in recent years? Dems are in a period of unprecedented popular vote dominance in the popular vote. We’ve won more votes in 7 of the past 8 general elections, something no other political party has done in American history. In the last 4 Presidential elections we’ve averaged 51% of the vote, the GOP 46% (51%-46%, +5). The last time we did that well was during FDR’s 4 elections all the way back in the 1930s and 1940s. For Trump to win the popular vote next year he will have to do something only a single Republican has done since 1992 and I just don’t believe this disgraced, despicable, insurrectionist is going to be the one to pull that off. We are a center-left country today, and the extremism of MAGA has made it even more so in recent years. The Democratic Party is very strong right now.
- Joe Biden is a good President, the country is better off and we will have a very strong case for re-election. Period.
- Trump is weaker than he looks right now – In his primary Trump is at 60% and has many challengers. Joe Biden is in the high 70s in the Democratic primary, and was strong enough to prevent any serious challenger from emerging. RFK was getting so little traction in our primary he left, and is now running as independent. At 60% nationally, 40% of Republicans are still not with Trump. Current polling has Trump under 50% in both Iowa and New Hampshire, meaning a majority of Republicans in these critical battlegrounds are still not with Trump. Our party is far more unified today than the Republican Party is, and that is a big problem for the party that keeps losing elections across the US. Yes, we are having a debate inside the family about Israel-Hamas, but as the largest sample poll done to date on the conflict shows there is not dispositive data showing our party splintering on the issue (Biden gets high marks here from both Dems and young people):
It Is The President’s Birthday Today! – So of course there is a discussion of the the President’s age….here I am in the NYTimes today:
Simon Rosenberg, a veteran Democratic strategist, said the White House should lean even more into the benefits of Mr. Biden’s age rather than be defensive.
“He’s been successful because of his age, not in spite of it,” Mr. Rosenberg said. “We’re all going to have to make that case because it’s true. We can’t run away from the age issue. It’s going to be a major part of the conversation, but we would be making a political mistake if we don’t contest it more aggressively.”
And in The Guardian:
Biden also found more cheerful birthday reading from Simon Rosenberg, a Democratic strategist who correctly played down fears of a Republican midterm “red wave”.
“I have a simple message,” Rosenberg wrote in his newsletter. “We should be very optimistic about winning the presidential election next year.”
Rosenberg added: “The Republican party is in trouble. It keeps losing elections across the country. It has done two things since 2020, each of which could keep a political party out of power for decades – stripped women of fundamental rights, and led a party-wide conspiracy to overturn an election and end American democracy.”
He also pointed to a “terrible” New York Times poll that showed Trump ahead in battleground states but also asked what voters would do if Trump was sentenced to prison, which Rosenberg said was “likely”.
Pointing to results including a 23-point swing to Biden in Nevada and an 18-point shift in Georgia, Rosenberg said: “Here is what happens in the battlegrounds – huge swings, GOP devastation.”
- Opposition and fear of MAGA is the dominant force in US politics today, and that is a big problem for super-MAGA Trump in 2024 – fear and opposition to MAGA has been propelling our electoral wins since 2018, and will almost certainly do so again next year. Consider what will be able to say about Trump in 2024:
- he was convicted of sexual assault
- his family took $2 billion from the Saudi royal family, and tens of millions more from governments all around the world
- there is no person more responsible for ending Roe and stripping fundamental rights away from women than Donald Trump
- he will if re-elected conduct an unprecedented assault on tens of millions of long-settled immigrants here in the US which will rip families and communities apart and wreck the American economy
- he oversaw one of the largest financial frauds in American history, and several of this top employees have gone to jail for these crimes
- he was responsible for what is almost certainly the most consequential security breach/breaches in American history
- he led a party-wide conspiracy to overturn an American election, and end American democracy
- he praises dictators, and has aligned himself with foreign powers hostile to American interests, and is now seemingly on the side of countries who want to weaken America and the global order it has built
- he led an armed assault on the US Congress, while all 435 Members were present
Remember what the NYT found when they asked how people in the battlegrounds would vote if Trump was convicted and sentenced to prison. It suggests that there are deep and profound risks to the Republicans nominating Trump:
- AZ – Trump +5 to Biden +5 (10 pt shift)
- GA – Trump +6 to Biden +12 (18 pt shift)
- MI – Trump +5 to Biden +12 (17 pt shift)
- NV – Trump +11 to Biden +12 (23 pt shift)
- PA – Trump +4 to Biden +4 (8 pt shift)
- WI – Biden +2 to Biden +14 (12 pt shift)
Finally, I’m sorry, but we are not going to lose to that guy, who has done those things, and who has more profoundly betrayed America and all that it stands for than other leader in our history. Chin up, peeps – as we head into 2024, in every way possible, I would much rather be us than them. We have a lot of work to do, but our work is doable. Their job is much harder. I have no idea how you dress up this man and make him look like anything other than the worst man to run for President in the history of this great country. Heads down and let’s go win this thing next year.
Happy Birthday Mr. President!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!