Tom Keen Wins, GOP Limps Into 2024, Axios: “Americans Are Actually Pretty Happy With Their Finances”

With Dems Friday, Tom Suozzi Next Wed, Jan 24th – Let’s Win NY-3 Together

SIMON ROSENBERG

JAN 17

Tom Keen Wins!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! – A big win last night. Home of Trump and DeSantis the day after they place 1-2 in Iowa. Dems outspent 2-1 in a GOP seat. Outspent, hostile territory, GOP seat and we flipped it! Congrats everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I know many of you donated and worked on the race – thank you. What a great way to start this critical election year. 

As we often discuss here the central dynamic in American politics since Dobbs in the spring of 2022 has been Dem overperformance, Republican struggle in race after race, all across the country. We saw it in the battlegrounds in 2022, as we improved our standing over 2020 in AZ, CO, GA, MI, MN, NH, PA; and got all the way up to 59% in CO, 57& in PA, 55% in MI, 54% in NH. We saw it all throughout 2023 as we took away Colorado Springs and Jacksonville, two of the largest GOP held cities; the Supreme Court seat and rancid gerrymandering in WI; the six week abortion ban in OH; the Virginia Assembly and the fantasy that the 15 week abortion ban would be a safe haven for Republicans; and so much more, all across the country. 

When I started Hopium in early 2023 I wondered whether this dynamic that we saw in 2022 would continue in 2023, and it did. 2023 was really a blue wave year across the US. And here in early 2024 we’ve been wondering would this same dynamic carry over to this year? And look what we’ve seen this week: 

Iowa – huge sums spent, competitive race, unprecedented investment in ground operations, lots of candidate time, and overall GOP turnout was abysmal, coming in at 110,000, down from 186,000 in 2016, and the lowest 24 years. If Rs were fired up, ready to take on Biden they would have shown up and voted. They didn’t. It’s another sign of this ongoing GOP struggle we discuss aboe. 

Don’t let weather be an excuse here – the drop was much too big to be explained by weather; the test of the strength of a campaign or party is whether they can get their voters to show up – and here they didn’t; this GOP enthusiasm problem is something that just keeps repeating all across the country in election after election. 

Florida – Dems flip this GOP held seat, despite all the advantages Republicans currently have in Florida. Another sign of Dem heightened performance, GOP struggle, another Dem takeaway of something Republicans hold. 

There it is. Same dynamic, two different states. In a post yesterday I explained why I think this is all happening, why Republicans continue to struggle, why they are limping into 2024 – for at it’s core the GOP is an ugly party now, deeply unattractive even to its own voters.

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