Abortion Center Stage Now, More Encouraging Biden Polling, Bibi Should Resign – Today

FL Republicans Will Be Defending A Six Week Ban This November. It Polls In the 20s. 

SIMON ROSENBERG

APR 2

Happy Tuesday everyone. Let’s get to it: 

Top lines – 

Biden Up 44-42 in New Morning Consult Tracking Poll – This week’s Morning Consult weekly tracking pollhas Biden with a 2 point lead. It’s his best showing in 2024, and marks a 4+ point swing from where this poll was consistently two months ago. 

With this new track there are now 12 polls taken since late February showing Biden leads (via 538): 

  • 48-45 Quinnipiac
  • 44-43 Noble Predictive
  • 44-43 Economist/YouGov (March 19)
  • 47-45 FAU/Mainstreet
  • 44-43 Morning Consult (March 11)
  • 46-45 Public Policy Research
  • 50-48 Ipsos/Reuters
  • 45-44 Civiqs
  • 47-44 Kaiser Family Foundation
  • 51-49 Emerson
  • 43-42 TIPP

A few points: 

  • It is no longer consistent with the data available to us to say Trump leads in the 2024 Presidential election. It is a close, competitive election, and Biden has clearly gained ground in recent weeks. The election is changing, and it is critical that we demand commentators we trust to acknowledge this. Biden’s clear gains in recent weeks is the most important dynamic in the 2024 election now. 
  • It has long been our view that once the general election began, people came to understand it was Biden vs Trump, and the Biden campaign turned on, Biden’s numbers would improve and by April-May-June would open up a modest lead. It’s possible we are seeing that now. 
  • In looking at the polling averages note that we are starting to see, as we did in 2022, a difference between independent polls and Republican-aligned polls. Just scrolling through 538 you can find data like the data above, showing Biden leading/tied, and then you get to the many GOP polls which show Trump ahead by 2-5 points. It’s why I don’t really believe in the averages any more. We all need to be far more aggressive about weeding out the many GOP-aligned polls which simply cannot be trusted or taken seriously after what happened in 2022. 

In 2022 when I weeded out the GOP polls I saw a close, competitive election. In 2024 when I weed out the GOP polls I see a close, competitive election with Biden making gains. The election is changing now, and it is getting better for us. 

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New Biden Reproductive Freedom Ad – This ad dropped this morning. Please share widely through your networks: 

From Biden-Harris campaign press release: 

The ad is part of the Team Biden-Harris’ $30 million spring ad campaign targeting voters in battleground states. Beginning Tuesday, “Trust” will air in battleground states on national cable and local broadcast and cable television, as well as on popular entertainment and sports programming on stations like ESPN, TNT, FX, Adult Swim, and Comedy Central and during high-viewership prime programming like the CMT Awards, SNL, The Voice, and American Idol, as well as in highly watched MLB games featuring the Milwaukee Brewers, Detroit Tigers, Pittsburgh Pirates, and Philadelphia Phillies. The ad will also run digitally in key states across platforms, including in Florida, with a heavy emphasis on Instagram, Facebook, and YouTube.

After the Florida Supreme Court’s decisions yesterday to allow the 15 week and 6 week abortion bans to proceed, and the ballot initiative to restore reproductive freedom in the state to also proceed, the Biden-Harris campaign released the following memo, President Biden’s Opening in Florida. It is worth reading in its entirety given the importance of Florida, and do note how essential our big investments in winning both the Deegan and Keen races have been to getting us to this promising moment: 

President Biden’s Opening in Florida – “Team Biden-Harris enters the general election cycle in a position of strength. Because our agenda is strong and a proven winner, because our coalition is broad and diverse, and because of our strong financial footing, we are entering the general election with multiple pathways to 270 electoral votes – something Team Trump is not afforded. That includes investing in Florida as a pathway to victory: a state where President Biden has a compelling story of results, Trump and Rick Scott’s extreme agenda is making Floridians’ lives worse, and the Democratic coalition is growing and energized.

Abortion Rights Will Be Front and Center in Florida This Election Cycle

Florida’s Supreme Court just issued a ruling allowing Ron DeSantis’ near-total abortion ban to go into effect next month, ripping away access to reproductive care before many women know they are pregnant. This new, extreme abortion ban – one that Donald Trump personally paved the way for – will now amount to a ban for the entire Southeast. Women in need of reproductive care throughout the region now face a choice between putting their lives at risk or traveling hundreds or thousands of miles to get care.

As we’ve seen in election after election, protecting abortion rights is mobilizing a diverse and growing segment of voters to help buoy Democrats up and down the ballot. With an abortion amendment officially on the ballot this November in Florida, President Biden and Vice President Harris and their commitment to fighting back against Donald Trump and Rick Scott’s attacks on reproductive freedom will help mobilize and expand the electorate in the state, given the overwhelming majority of Floridians support abortion rights. And Florida Republicans will be forced to defend their cruel, indefensible support of this abortion ban.

Florida is Ground Zero for Trump’s MAGA Blueprint

Our advantage is not just on abortion rights. Extreme MAGA Republicans – following in the footsteps of Donald Trump – have made Florida the blueprint for their toxic and losing agenda. These toxic ideas were put on the national stage with DeSantis and Trump running to out-MAGA each other.

In Florida, here’s a snapshot of just some of the deeply unpopular legislation passed by the MAGA Republican-dominated state legislature to assault Floridians’ rights and freedoms:

  • Banned abortion and forced victims of rape or incest to show proof to be able to get access to health care
  • Made it easier for criminals to carry guns
  • Banned books, rewrote history, and attacked the most vulnerable communities

Florida Republicans’ toxic political agenda isn’t just taking away rights; it’s leading to higher costs for Florida’s working families:

  • Florida has faced some of the fastest rising housing costs in recent years
  • Property insurance companies are fleecing Florida homeowners, in some cases Florida homeowners’ premiums are 400% higher today than they were five years ago, while DeSantis bailed out these companies with taxpayer dollars and helped shield insurance companies from lawsuits
  • Florida ranks 44th among all states for health insurance access and affordability, while Ron DeSantis and now-Senator Scott refused to expand Medicaid

This MAGA blueprint will be center stage down ballot as well as on the presidential level. Rick Scott – the architect of a plan to gut Social Security and Medicare and the Senate Republicans’ historic losses in the 2022 midterms – is running in a competitive election against Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, a first-generation immigrant with a winning record in tough races.

Team Biden-Harris Is Running on a Popular Record of Delivering For Floridians

President Biden and Vice President Harris also boast a historic record that is popular among Florida voters.

Health Care: Florida leads the nation in enrollment in the ACA – a law Donald Trump has pledged to terminate, and Miami-Dade County, the state’s most populous county, has led the country in ACA enrollment. And thanks to the Inflation Reduction Act and American Rescue plan, 4.2 million Floridianssigned up for health insurance through the Affordable Care Act Marketplace and most will save hundreds on health care premiums.

Protecting Social Security and Medicare, Lowering Health Care Costs: President Biden and Vice President are running to protect and strengthen Social Security against Trump and Rick Scott’s promises to cut it. Florida is home to 4.8 million seniors, who also benefit from President Biden’s work to lower out-of-pocket prescription drug costs and cap insulin costs.

Fighting Gun Violence: Florida has been an epicenter for gun violence, from Parkland to Pulse to last year’s racist shooting in Jacksonville. President Biden passed the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, the first significant federal gun safety legislation in three decades, to help keep guns out of the hands of dangerous people. Vice President Harris leads the first-ever Office of Gun Violence Prevention, and just announced new executive actions during her visit to Parkland. And Florida Congressman Maxwell Frost, who was motivated to run on the issue, serves as a member of the campaign’s National Advisory Board.

Making Life Better for Floridians:More than $15.6 billion from President Biden’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law has funded 581 projects to invest in roads, bridges, clean water, high-speed internet including expanding access to broadband in rural communities, and more. That includes restoring the Everglades and modernizing Orlando International Airport. And President Biden hasn’t just lowered health care costs for Floridians; since October 2021, the Biden-Harris administration has cleared over $6.5 billion in student debt through the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program and fixes to Income-Driven Repayment programs — one of the largest balances in the nation.

The Biden-Harris agenda is overwhelmingly impacting the voters that will decide this election – and presents an opportunity to motivate Floridians to turn out in support of the President and Vice President.

Mobilizing the Biden-Harris Coalition in Florida

Since the 2022 midterms in Florida, there have been resounding rejections of MAGA politics.

Last May, Donna Deegan, a Democrat, won the Jacksonville mayoral race for just the second time in the last three decades, flipping the county by 15 points – only six months after DeSantis’ win. Earlier this year, Tom Keen won a battleground State House District that had previously been won by DeSantis by 13 points. Following a trend seen nationwide, in other down-ballot races in Florida, we’ve seen Democrats overperform and Republicans consistently underperform.

These wins send a clear signal: as voters see more and more of the extreme policies enacted by MAGA Republicans, they reject them.

President Biden is also well-positioned to assemble a winning coalition in Florida, foremost given that he is uniquely strong with seniors, an influential, reliable, and large voting group. Among seniors, President Biden is growing his margins of support, has some of his strongest approval ratings, and in 2020, performed better with seniors than Democrats had in two decades. With support of the Alliance of Retired Americans, with its largest membership in Florida, Team Biden-Harris will be able to mobilize these key voters in a cycle that could very well determine the fate of their hard-earned Medicare and Social Security benefits.

Winning Florida also requires the ability to mobilize Florida’s large and diverse communities of color across the state, including Hispanic voters, Black voters, and young voters. The President’s agenda and platform of fighting for freedoms, lowering costs, and creating jobs are resonant among these communities, and Team Biden-Harris is making voters of color a centerpiece of its campaign strategy. That includes:

  • Early investments into reaching Florida voters as a part of Team Biden-Harris’ Fall $25 million advertising launch and its Spring $30 million ad buy
  • Launch of Latinos con Biden-Harris, an organizing program with strong roots among Florida’s large Cuban, Venezuelan, and Boricua population
  • Consistent travel and campaigning in the state, including Vice President Harris’ recent trip to Parkland and to Puerto Rico, and the Second Gentleman’s visit to Miami
  • Targeted ad buy around the 14th anniversary of the passage of the ACA, targeting young, Hispanic, and Black voters in Florida

President Biden also has an opportunity with Haley voters in Florida. 155,000 Republican primary voters in Florida voted for Nikki Haley in a primary that came after she suspended her campaign. Similar to other states, including those with exit polls, we fully expect that many of those voters will not vote for Trump and are winnable for President Biden this November.

Winning Florida

Our agenda, our coalition, and the unique dynamics this election presents make it clear: President Biden is in a stronger position to win Florida this cycle than he was in 2020.

Make no mistake: Florida is not an easy state to win, but it is a winnable one for President Biden, especially given Trump’s weak, cash-strapped campaign, and serious vulnerabilities within his coalition.

Winning Florida requires being strategic with resources, while putting in the work early and often to reach its many diverse constituencies. That’s exactly what Team Biden-Harris is doing.  Last week, we announced that we are bringing on three seasoned operatives to lead our Florida campaign: Jasmine Burney Clark as state campaign manager and Phillip Jerez and Jackie Lee as senior advisors. These strategists will leverage their deep experience in the state to put Donald Trump on defense in his home state.

From a cruel and dangerous abortion ban and overt attacks on seniors to soaring costs caused by Republican policies, Donald Trump’s platform is uniquely unpopular with the voters who will decide this election in the Sunshine State – and our campaign is primed and ready to seize on the opportunity.”

It’s a new day in Florida, and in the 2024 election, my friends. 

Bibi, The Worst Leader Israel Has Ever Known, Should Resign Today, Right Now. It’s Time – 

Let’s Do More, Worry Less – We are in the final push for these three must-win projects. Thanks to everyone who has helped out – we’ve blown past our original $100,000 goals for all three: 

Donate To and Join The Biden-Harris Campaign – Job 1 this year is defeating Trump. As the general election has begun it’s time to get on board the Biden-Harris train. Please donatewhatever amount you can – $5, $10 – to get started and become part of the big campaign of 2024. 

So far the Hopium community has raised $196,000 from 2,300 of you for Biden Harris – thank you all!

Have you ordered your Biden-Harris lawn sign yet? You can do so here

Make An Early Investment in North Carolina – North Carolina is our most important 2024 battleground expansion state. Please donate today!

For more on why I think North Carolina is so important watch my in-depth interview with Anderson Clayton, the dynamic new NC Dem Party chair; learn about the extremists running statewide in North Carolina this year and why they give us a great opportunity to grow, expand and flip NC blue; and hear Anderson give us an update on her work and the impact our investments are having on the ground. 

So far we’ve raised $153,000 from over 2,025 of you for Anderson and the NC Dems – thank you all. You can also learn how to volunteer for the NC Dems from wherever you live here

Look at what having Anderson there at the helm, with resources, means: 

Help Ruben Gallego Win Arizona – Join me in helping Ruben Gallego in his campaign to become the next Senator from Arizona. The polls are encouraging there, and this is a very critical 2024 battleground state – must win Biden-Harris state, must win Senate, two House pick up opportunities (and maybe the state house too). Because Senator Sinema stayed in for so long, Ruben is a bit behind where he should be financially and organizationally, and needs our help today.  Watch my recent interview with Ruben, and please donate today! We have already raised over $109,000 from over 1,700 of you – thank you all!

You can volunteer to help Ruben and the AZ Democrats here

Spread Hopium – Encourage people in your networks to become a Hopium subscriber. We hit our two big March 31st goals – 50,000 overall subscribers and 6,000 paid! Thank you all for helping keep this community growing and the Hopium flowing! 

Keep working hard all. Excited to be back, and proud to be in this fight with all of you – Simon

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