House Must Pass Ukraine Funding, Murder Rates Plummeting Across US, Election Is Becoming Bluer

Tue, 8pm ET – My Monthly Get Together With The Hopium Community


APR 15

Happy Monday all. Got a few things for you today: 

Ukraine Funding Must Pass The House – Iran’s attack on Israel this weekend was a very powerful reminder of the nature of the choice in front of Republicans now:

America, The West, Israel, Ukraine, Freedom and Democracy


Trump, Putin, Iran, Hamas, Hizbollah, Illiberalism and Autocracy

Trump’s years of appeasing Putin, and the House GOP’s delay of the Ukraine funding package, has emboldened our adversaries and made America and all of us far less safe. Trump is an extraordinary danger to us all. He’s blocking Ukraine funding – the single most reckless thing Congress has done in modern times. He’s blocking funding to make our border more secure. He tried to end American democracy in 2021 and has promised to finish the job if he gets to the White House. His proposed tariffs would blow up the current global economic order, wreck our economy and further weaken the US and the West. He’s undermining public health by attacking the integrity of vaccines. He’s stripped the rights and freedoms from the women of America, and made it far more likely women will die across the US. He wants to roll back Biden’s historic investments in fighting climate change……

As David Frum wrote in the Atlantic Sunday: 

Because of Donald Trump, Republicans are now the party of foreign-policy weakness, passivity, and surrender

One thing you can do today is call your Congressperson and tell them you want them to pass the Senate supplmentalwhich provides aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan as soon as possible. While most Dems are for it, they still need to hear from us. Here’s what President Biden said upon the passage of the Senate foreign aide bill: 

This bipartisan supplemental agreement is critical to advancing America’s national security interests. It will allow the United States to continue our vital work, together with our allies and partners all around the world, to stand up for Ukraine’s freedom and support its ability to defend itself against Russia’s aggression. It will provide Israel with what it needs to protect its people against Hamas terrorists. Significantly, this agreement will provide life-saving humanitarian assistance for the Palestinian people, the vast majority of whom have nothing to do with Hamas. 

We need to show the world that America can stand up to Trump, to Putin, to Iran, to China as America did this past weekend over the skies of the Middle East. We need to get loud on this one peeps. Passing this aide package really matters. 

Murder Rates Plummet, GOP Talking Points Evaporate – The Wall Street Journal (yes paywall) did a story this weekend on new data showing plummeting murder rates in America, part of a broader trend of all forms of crime dropping from their rise under Trump: 

Homicides in American cities are falling at the fastest pace in decades, bringing them close to levels they were at before a pandemic-era jump.

Here’s a graphic from the piece: 

It’s a reminder that in recent months, all the central GOP attacks on Biden have evaporated: 

  • The economy is historically strong, not weak
  • Inflation is way down, not rising (see below)
  • Crime rates are plummeting, not raging
  • There is no Biden war on energy – 2023 saw record renewable, oil and gas production here in the US, making us far more energy independent than in decades
  • Due to Trump’s madness, Democrats are now the party of order at the border, the GOP the party of chaos
  • The Biden crime family narrative turned out to be a Russian information operations once again laundered by their allies in the GOP
  • Concerns about Biden’s age were greatly assauged by his strong State of the Union performance, and by the revelation that the Special Counsel LIED about Biden’s memory problems

Due to the success of the Biden Presidency, I believe the election is shifting now from a referendum on Biden to a referendum on Trump and all his awfulness – and that my friends is very bad news indeed for the GOP. 

A note on inflation. CPI came in a tenth of a precentage point – 0.1% – higher than expected last week. No reason to panic or freak out. Let’s see what data tells us in the next few weeks. As I wrote in this analysis, and discuss in my updated With Dems presentation, the economy is historically strong right now, and America is far better off under President Biden. Don’t get bullied here folks. 

Finally, gas prices have begun to rise again, and this time we need to place the blame not on Joe Biden (see above) but here: “Saudi Arabia, Russia and several OPEC+ producers extend voluntary crude supply cuts until end of June.” Cutting production raises gas prices here in the US. Trump’s close allies, Saudi Arabia and Russia, are raising your gas prices, my friends, not Joe Biden. 

Upcoming Events – Register Today! – Yes, lots going on here at Hopium right now. Check out our full spring schedule here. If you want to join our paid subscriber events and aren’t yet a paid subscriber you can sign up here. Looking forward to seeing folks soon!

  • Tue, April 16th, 8pm ET – Monthly Hopium Community Wide Get Together w/Simon – Register here
  • Thur, April 18th Evening – Simon speaks in person at the Maricopa Country Democratic Party 100th Anniversary Event (Phoenix) – Buy A Ticket Here
  • Sat, April 20th Evening – Simon speaks in person at the Arlington (VA) Democrats Blue Victory Dinner – Buy A Ticket Here
  • Fri, May 3rd, 1pm ET – Monthly Hopium Founding Member Discussion With Simon
  • Wed, May 8th, 7pm ET – Monthly Hopium Paid Subscriber Get Together

The Election Is Becoming Bluer – With a new Politico/Morning Consult poll out this morning showing Biden up 45-43 (+2), we now have 22 polls taken since late February showing Biden ahead. To get a sense of the movement towards Biden we are seeing now, here’s how much he has gained in some new polls over the past few months: 

  • 8 pts – Marquette 
  • 6 pts – Morning Consult
  • 4 pts – NYT/Siena, HarrisX/Forbes, Redfield/Wilton 
  • 3 pts – Big Village 
  • 2 pts – Ipsos/Reuters, Echelon 

There are now polls with Biden leading in MI, PA, and WI. 2 new North Carolina polls show Biden-Trump within margin of error (meaning its tied). Two-thirds of recent Congressional Generic polls on 538 have Dems ahead. While we have a lot of work to do, and a long way to go, this is all good news. 

More on the bluer 2024 election:

  • My Latest Take on Where Things Are (Video, 4/10/24) – This is my latest overview of where we are in the 2024 election and why I am so fundamentally optimistic. The post also has a deep dive on recent, encouraging polling data. While it remains a close, competitive election, things have gotten bluer in recent weeks, and Trump no longer leads.
  • My Interview With the NYT – Here’s my interview with Adam Nagourney of the New York Times. It’s gotten a lot of attention. Do read. Lots of great stuff in here! 
  • Deep State Radio Podcast with David Rothkopf and Tara McGowan – every few weeks I get together with my good friends David and Tara for a review of the latest in the 2024 election. Do listen, this is always a great podcast with two of the smartest people I know.

Trump’s Very Ugly April – I went on CNN Friday night to discuss Biden’s improving poll numbers and what has become a very bad April for Donald Trump. Do watch if you have a minute, and yes I finally got a haircut:

Let’s Do More, Worry Less – Here are Hopium we channel all the worry we have about the election into purposeful action. Hopium is a hope with a plan. We don’t just hope we will win this November we do the work to make it so. Right now we are in the final push for three must-win projects – the Biden-Harris campaign, Anderson Clayton/NC Dems and Arizona’s Ruben Gallego. Learn more, donate and volunteer here. Thanks to all of you who’ve stepped up so far!

Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you – Simon

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