Winning Arizona, Making Calls For Ukraine, A Good Youth Poll, A Bluer 2024 Election

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Happy Thursday all. Writing this morning from Phoenix, where tonight I will be addressing the Maricopa County Democratic Party’s 100th Anniversary dinner. I’m excited to be here and working it in Maricopa country, the largest county in the Presidential battleground, ground zero in the 2024 election and where millions of women are about to have their rights and freedoms stripped away by Donald Trump and a draconian law passed in 1864. 

Yesterday Democrats in the Arizona state legislature made their second attempt to repeal this ridiculous law. Here’s video of State Senate Republicans cheering their success in blocking the repeal, and keeping the 1864 law in place: 

Winning Arizona has to be something we all help with now. The core of my Get to 55 argument is that 2024 can be a year of growth and expansion for us, that MAGA’s escalating extremism means more is possible for us now. Can we have a big blue wave year now in Arizona, see Joe Biden and Ruben Gallego win and AZ Dems pick up 2 House seats and flip both state legislative chambers? Yes, it is possible now. If we put our heads down and do the work. That’s why I am in Arizona today – to thank and cheer on all the remarkable people facing down 1864 extremism, and ensuring these MAGAs are swept from office this November. 

If you are in Arizona tonight come by our reception and dinner and help provide the Maricopa Dems the money they need this year. Another critical way to help us win Arizona is by giving to Ruben Gallego. His ambitious campaign against Arizona’s leading extremist, ultra-MAGA Kari Lake, is going to drive victories for us up and down the ballot here. Thanks to all of you who have already given or volunteered for Ruben – all this money and work really matters. 

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New Harvard Youth Poll Is Encouraging for Biden, But There Is Work To Do – My friend John Della Volpe at Harvard’s Institute for Politics releases a gold-standard youth poll every quarter. Their spring 2024 poll of 18-29 year olds is now out, and there is an awful lot to chew on in here. From their release: 

“As the Biden/Trump rematch takes shape, we see strong levels of engagement and interest in voting among young Americans,” said John Della Volpe, IOP Polling Director. “Make no mistake, this is a different youth electorate than we saw in 2020 and 2022, and young voters are motivated by different things. Economic issues are top of mind, housing is a major concern—and the gap between young men’s and young women’s political preferences is pronounced.”

“Young Americans are emerging from a pandemic that has tested our trust in democratic institutions and the bonds that unite us,” said Anil Cacodcar, Student Chair of the Harvard Public Opinion Project. “Despite this, young Americans are more ready than ever to engage with these institutions to push for the change we want to see in the world.”

Note that the poll breaks out “likely voters” from “registered voters,” which is important as so many young people don’t end up voting. Some initial takeaways from me: 

  • 18-29 year old vote intention is about the same as it was in the spring of 2020, a very high youth turnout year. 
  • Biden leads 56-39 (+19) among voters 18-29 year olds likely to vote. He won 18-29 year old voters by 60-36 in 2020, so off a bit but with work we can match our 2020 results. As I say here every day, some of our coalition is wandering now, and we need to go get them back. To repeat – this result is neither suprising, or worrisome. 
  • The data on Israel-Gaze is consistent with what I’ve been writing here – while an important issue, it is unlikely to be a voting issue for a large number of young people this fall: “When young Americans are asked whether or not they believe Israel’s response so far to the October 7 attack by Hamas has been justified, a plurality indicates that they don’t know (45%). About a fifth (21%) report that Israel’s response was justified with 32% believing it was not justified.”

I also found this section to be particularly interesting: “Among the 1,051 “likely voters” in our sample, we found significant differences in support levels based on gender, age, race/ethnicity, and education levels, among other subgroups. For example, among likely young voters:

  • President Biden’s lead among young men is six points; among young women his lead is 33 points;
  • President Biden’s lead among 18-24 year-olds is 14 points, and among 25-29 year-olds it is 26 points (note from Simon – that younger Gen Z may be more Republican is something we really have to come to understand); 
  • President Biden’s lead among white voters is 3 points; among non-white voters his lead is 43 points;
  • President Biden’s lead among college students is 23 points; he leads by 47 points among college graduates. The race is even among those not in college and without a four-year degree.

For those who want to dive a bit deeper into the youth vote today, I’ll be joining the great Laura Brill of The Civics Center at 6pm ET for an event called “All In For 18 Year Olds.” While this a fundraiser, people are welcome to join us to learn more, and only make a contribution if you are persuaded in the virtue of Laura’s youth organizing program (which I am). 

Finally, the Economist has a new articleout this week which deserves our attention. It’s called “Generation Z in unprecedentedly rich: Millennials were poorer at this stage of their lives. So were baby boomers.” It includes this core graph: 

Of course, that each successive American generation has done better than the one that came before means that MAGA is built on top of a mountain of rancid lies. More on this soon…..

Making Calls For Ukraine. We Can Do This People!!!! – There is a growing sense of optimism in Washington that we may finally be able to pass funding for Ukraine. Much of it stems from the unexpectedly strong advocacy and leadership from Speaker Mike Johnson. Here is a clip of his widely circulated comments from last night – it is important that everyone here watch this video, and hear his argument. It’s powerful, persuasive and important: 

Here’s an excerpt from his statement: 

A new Washington Post article reminds us of the stakes of the fight in Ukraine: 

Russia’s Foreign Ministry has been drawing up plans to try to weaken its Western adversaries, including the United States, and leverage the Ukraine war to forge a global order free from what it sees as American dominance, according to a secret Foreign Ministry document.

In a classified addendum to Russia’s official — and public — “Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation,” the ministry calls for an “offensive information campaign” and other measures spanning “the military-political, economic and trade and informational psychological spheres” against a “coalition of unfriendly countries” led by the United States.

“We need to continue adjusting our approach to relations with unfriendly states,” states the 2023 document, which was provided to The Washington Post by a European intelligence service. “It’s important to create a mechanism for finding the vulnerable points of their external and internal policies with the aim of developing practical steps to weaken Russia’s opponents.”

The document for the first time provides official confirmation and codification of what many in the Moscow elite say has become a hybrid war against the West. Russia is seeking to subvert Western support for Ukraine and disrupt the domestic politics of the United States and European countries, through propaganda campaigns supporting isolationist and extremist policies, according to Kremlin documentspreviously reported on by The Post. It is also seeking to refashion geopolitics, drawing closer to China, Iran and North Korea in an attempt to shift the current balance of power.

Using much tougher and blunter language than the public foreign policy document, the secret addendum, dated April 11, 2023, claims that the United States is leading a coalition of “unfriendly countries” aimed at weakening Russia because Moscow is “a threat to Western global hegemony.” The document says the outcome of Russia’s war in Ukraine will “to a great degree determine the outlines of the future world order,” a clear indication that Moscow sees the result of its invasion as inextricably bound with its ability — and that of other authoritarian nations — to impose its will globally (bold added for emphasis)

On Tuesday the Hopium community began making calls to House Membersasking them not just to vote for the Ukraine funding bill slated for a vote in the coming days, but to fight for it. Please call today, call tomorrow and keep calling to the bill passes the House. These calls matter to House offices, and even if your Member is already committed one way or the other they need to hear from you. Please ask others in your networks to join you in making calls. The stakes here are so high, and we simply must get this done this week.

Here’s a possible message for you to use when calling:

The people of Ukraine have been so brave. They have fought so hard against overwhelming odds, and lost so much. It is time America stands with them and gives them the tools they need to defeat Putin. Please do not just vote for the Ukraine funding bill this Friday, but please fight for it too. Our freedom, and the freedom of the people of the world, depends on what we do this week.

If you don’t know who your Member of Congress is you can find it here. The great Timothy Snyder makes a very powerful case for why we must stand with Ukraine in his Substack. Our paid subscriber chat has been loaded this week with messages from our community members who made calls, and offered their advice on scripts and strategies. Thank you all for what you’ve done this week. The Hopium community is stepping up – as it always does. We have to keep working it today. Find time in your day to take this simple step, and let’s keep making calls for Ukraine. For remember: 

the outcome of Russia’s war in Ukraine will “to a great degree determine the outlines of the future world order,” a clear indication that Moscow sees the result of its invasion as inextricably bound with its ability — and that of other authoritarian nations — to impose its will globally 

Let’s keep making calls for Ukraine. 

It’s A New, Bluer Election – In my post yesterday I went through lots of data showing that the election is changing now, Biden and the Dems are gaining ground and Trump no longer leads. We are also starting to get far more data from the 1st quarter fundraising reports, and so far its all been very encouraging. This morning we learned House Democrats have more cash on hand than Republicans – it’s very unusual for the party out of power to be out-raising the party which controls the House. It’s another sign of that basic dynamic I describe that we’ve seen since Dobbs – Dems overperforming expectations, Republicans struggling.

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