Winning Arizona, 6 Big Problems For Trump, House Passes Ukraine Funding Rule 316-91!!!!!!!!

Was great to see so many Hopium subscribers in person last night!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


APR 19

Happy Friday all. On a plane back to DC with very wobbly Wifi so will be a bit shorter/choppier than usual today. First, the big news – the House just voted to advance funding for Ukraine 316-94!!!!!!!!!!!! Here’s the NYTimes:

The House took a critical step on Friday toward approving a long-stalled package of aid to Ukraine, Israel and other American allies, as Democrats supplied the crucial votes to push the legislation past Republican opposition so that it could be considered on the floor.

The 316-94 vote cleared the way for the House to bring up the aid package, teeing up separate votes on Saturday on each of its parts. But passage of those measures, each of which enjoys bipartisan support from different coalitions, was not in doubt, making Friday’s action the key indicator that the legislation will prevail.

The rule for considering the bill — historically a straight party-line vote — passed with more Democratic than Republican support, but it also won a majority of G.O.P. votes, making it clear that despite a pocket of deep resistance from the far right, there is broad bipartisan backing for the $95.3 billion package.

The vote was an enormous victory in the long effort to fund Ukraine as it battles against Russian aggression, a major priority of President Biden that has met with bitter resistance from the right. It was a triumph against the forces of isolationism within the G.O.P. and a major moment of bipartisan consensus in a Congress that for the past year has been mostly defined by its dysfunction (bold added for emphasis). 

The vote for final passage is tomorrow. Please keep making your calls friends. Here’s how everyone voted this morning, and use this link to locate your Member if you don’t know it today. Please call to thank your Member of Congress, and encourage them to vote tomorrow, or call to ask them to change their vote and get this done for us, our future, our kids and our grandkids. So grateful to all of you who’ve been calling this week. We are on the cusp of an enormous victory – keep working it all. Not done yet. Keep making calls for Ukraine!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Winning Arizona – I’m traveling back to DC from Arizona now. Had a great night last night. Can report that Democrats in Phoenix, ground zero in 2024, are fired up and ready to go. I got to meet many Hopium subscribers – so great to see everyone, in person! – and thank you for supporting the Maricopa Country Democratic Party on its 100th Anniversary. A big thank you to MCDP Chairwoman Patti O’Neill and Jon Ryder for giving me the opportunity to be part of what was a wonderful event in this critical battleground. 

One of the highlights for me was meeting State Senator Eva Burch, who has gotten so much attention for her inspirational fight for reproductive freedom in a state where women are about to lose long held rights due to the Arizona’s Supreme Court’s greenlighting the 1864 abortion ban. Here we are, together, last night, and you can watch a clip of her on Good Morning America yesterday morning here

There are many ways to help us win Arizona this November, but to me the most important thing you can do today is by giving or volunteering for Ruben Gallego. Congressman Gallego is running against the leader of the MAGA movement in Arizona, Kari Lake, and this Senate race is a true 2024 must win. One of the reasons I’ve been so focused on both Arizona and North Carolina in recent months is that both states have ultra-MAGAs at the top of their tickets giving us an important opportunity to make real gains in both states this year. As my Get to 55 memo argues, their escalating extremism means more is possible for us for now (as we’ve seen in elections in 2022, 2023 and early 2024), and there is perhaps no better example of that than in Arizona and North Carolina this year. 

Find ways to help Ruben Gallego and North Carolina Democrats here, and let’s keep taking stuff away from them, together. 

Still Looking At This Graph – This graph is part of a story in the Economist this week, “Gen Z is unprecedently rich.” It’s a reminder that the core narrative of MAGA – that things were better – is a big, Olympian level lie. 

We Don’t Need Convictions To Make Our Case Against Trump – In my big talks I argue that whether convicted or not, there are six things voters are going to come to learn about Trump this year that they didn’t know about him in 2020 that will make it very hard for him to win: 

  • That he raped E. Jean Carroll in a department store dressing room
  • That he oversaw one of the largest financial frauds in American history, and owes hundreds of millions of dollars in fines and penalities 
  • That he stole America’s secrets, lied to the FBI about it all and shared those secrets with others. It was without question among the most grave security breaches in our history, and an extraordinary betrayal of the country by a former President
  • That he tried to overturn an American election, led an armed insurrection against the Congress, fought to end American democracy for all time and has promised to finish the job if he somehow gets into the Oval Office next year
  • That he and his family have, corruptly, taken more money from foreign governments than any political family in our history
  • That he was singularly responsible for ending Roe and stripping the rights and freedoms away from the women of America; and last week confirmed, by embracing the states’ rights position, that he supports the most extreme abortion bans in the nation – this making him without question the most dangerous abortion extremist America has ever seen. 

Any one of those six things will be hard for him to overcome this year. Overcoming all six I think will be impossible, particularly as he is a far weaker and more degraded candidate than 2020, and his party is far more a raging dumpster fire than well oiled political machine.

We mistakenly waited for Mueller to make our case about Russia’s illicit penetration of Trumpworld and the GOP. We cannot wait for prosecutions this time. We know what he’s done – he’s a rapist, a fraudster, a serial criminal, a betrayer of the nation, an unprecedentedly corrupt politician, the most dangerous abortion extremist we’ve ever seen. We have enough now to bury him and we need to get going. No reason to wait. The American people deserve to know who this man is, and what he has done, before voting in November. 

My 2024 Election Analysis – It’s A New, Bluer Election – Some resources for you: 

  • Why I’m So Optimistic We Will Win This November (Video, 4/16/24) – This is my latest overview of where we are in the 2024 election and why I am so fundamentally optimistic. The post also has a deep dive on recent, encouraging polling data. While it remains a close, competitive election, things have gotten bluer in recent weeks, and Trump no longer leads.
  • My Interview With the NYT – Here’s my interview with Adam Nagourney of the New York Times. It’s gotten a lot of attention. Do read. Lots of great stuff in here! 

Subscribe Today and Save – On May 1st an annual paid subscription here at Hopium will rise from $45 to $50. So if you want to lock in the current lower rate, consider subscribing today. You will lock in that lower rate for all time, and get all that you can from this site for the 2024 election. You can also learn more gift and group subscriptions here. Your financial support keeps this site growing and the Hopium flowing!

Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you, and do make a call for Ukraine today – Simon

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