Ukraine Funding Passes Senate, Fighting Trump Abortion Bans, The Orange Guy’s Terrible April

Unions Really Stepping Up For Biden/Subscribe and Save Runs Thru April 30th

SIMON ROSENBERG

APR 24, 2024

Happy Wednesday all, got a few things for you today: 

Ukraine Funding Passes The Senate!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! – Great work everyone!!!!! From the Washington Post this morning: 

The Senate overwhelmingly passed a $95 billion foreign aid bill on Tuesday, delivering billions of dollars in weapons and support to key U.S. allies Ukraine and Israel despite some opposition from both parties’ bases. The legislation, which passed by a 79-18 vote, had seemed all but dead for several months due to opposition in the GOP-led House.

President Biden said in a statement he would sign the bill into law as soon as it crosses his desk on Wednesday, and send aid to Ukraine this week. The funds help him deliver on his promise to the nation’s NATO allies to continue to aid Ukraine as it enters its third year fending off Russia’s invasion.

Passage of the legislation marks the first significant new tranche of aid passed by the U.S. Congress to the beleaguered nation in more than a year, as some Republicans aligned more with former president Donald Trump’s “America First” foreign policy waged a fierce battle against it. They ultimately lost out when Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) decided to put the $61 billion in Ukraine aid on the floor last Saturday, citing his belief that Russia posed a serious threat.

Biden Travels To Florida To Campaign Against Millions About To Lose Their Rights and Freedoms – In the next few weeks tens of millions of women in Arizona and Florida will lose long held rights and freedoms, as draconian Trump abortion bans take effect in both states. Yesterday the President went to Florida to campaign against its six week ban. Here’s a CBS News report on his trip: 

President Joe Biden on Tuesday blamed Donald Trump for Florida’s upcoming abortion ban and other restrictions across the country that have imperiled access to care for pregnant women, arguing Trump has created a “healthcare crisis for women all over this country.”

Biden’s campaign events at Hillsborough Community College in Tampa placed the president in the epicenter of the latest battle over abortion restrictions. The state’s six-week abortion ban is poised to go into effect May 1 at the same time that Florida voters are gearing up for a ballot measure that would enshrine abortion rights in the state’s constitution. Biden said that millions of women are facing “pain and cruelty.”

“But it’s not inevitable. We can stop it. When you vote, we can stop it,” he said.

A few weeks ago I saw down with Anna Hochkammer, one of the leaders of the Florida ballot initiative which would roll back the six week ban here. If you want to do a deep dive on the politics of abortion in Florida come watch. Anna is a strong and powerful leader for us in this critical fight. 

3 Million Strong Building Trades Endorse Biden – Learn more about this critical endorsement, and below is a new video they released this morning. The intensity of union support for Biden is really going to matter in this election, particularly in MI, PA, WI. The video is well worth watching. 

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In PA More Evidence Trump Is Struggling To Bring His Coalition Together – From The Cook Political Report (an insidery DC political site) this morning

Given that challengers to both President Biden and former president Donald Trump have officially dropped out of the contest, and that the primaries are closed (meaning only those registered as a Democrat or a Republican can vote in their party’s primary), the outcome of these primaries was never in doubt. Biden took 93% of the vote in the Democratic Party, while Trump pulled 83.5% of Republican votes.

However, the so-called “zombie” challengers to the frontrunners — Democratic Rep. Dean Phillips and Republican Nikki Haley — presented an opportunity for a protest vote from disgruntled partisans. Overall, Haley took close to 17% of the Republican vote, while Phillips garnered just 7% in the Democratic primary.

Not surprisingly, Haley did best in the suburban counties surrounding Philadelphia, taking about a quarter of the GOP primary vote in Montgomery, Delaware and Chester counties. Once heavily Republican, these affluent “Main Line” suburbs are now reliably Democratic and full of “Never Trump” Republicans. Biden carried these counties with more than 58% of the vote in 2020.

But it was notable that she also took some of her strongest support in the more swingy counties of Cumberland (outside of Harrisburg): Erie, Berks and Lancaster.

In Erie, for example, Haley took 20% of the Republican vote, while Phillips took just 8% of the Democratic vote. Biden won here in 2020 by just one point. In Cumberland County, which Trump carried by 10-points in 2020, Haley pulled in an impressive 23% of the Republican vote…..

……Haley’s stronger-than-expected showing in swingy and GOP-leaning counties could be a sign that Trump’s base in the Keystone State is not rock solid.

Trumpy candidates failed to bring the GOP coalition together in the battlegrounds in 2022 and lost, badly. To me this remains the likely scenario for 2024 – that a degraded, diminished and far more dangerous and extreme Trump with a party broke and broken fails to bring his coalition together in these same battlegrounds, and Biden wins. 

Key Takeaways From The Harvard-IOP Youth Poll – Last week Harvard’s Institute of Politics released it’s quarterly, high-sample, gold standard poll of 18-29 year olds. Three key takeaways for me from the poll: 

  • Vote intent right now is where it was in the spring of 2020, a very high turnout year for young people. Young people are engaged, paying attention
  • Biden is close to 2020 results with likely 18-29 year old voters. Work to do, but we can – if we do the work – hit our 2020 numbers with 18-29 year olds in vote share and over all turnout. This is good
  • Israel-Palestine is not a major issue for young Americans right now, and is in my view very unlikely to be one in the fall. This finding is confirmed in other polls. It’s an important issue, of course, but for young people there are many issues which matter much more: 

From The IOP’s press release: 

“As the Biden/Trump rematch takes shape, we see strong levels of engagement and interest in voting among young Americans,” said John Della Volpe, IOP Polling Director. “Make no mistake, this is a different youth electorate than we saw in 2020 and 2022, and young voters are motivated by different things. Economic issues are top of mind, housing is a major concern—and the gap between young men’s and young women’s political preferences is pronounced.”

“Young Americans are emerging from a pandemic that has tested our trust in democratic institutions and the bonds that unite us,” said Anil Cacodcar, Student Chair of the Harvard Public Opinion Project. “Despite this, young Americans are more ready than ever to engage with these institutions to push for the change we want to see in the world.”

It’s A New, Bluer Election – On Monday I wrote about Biden’s rising poll numbers, including his best national poll so far in 2024. On Tuesday I wrote about the importance of Arizona and North Carolina this year, and new polling showing RFK taking more from Trump than Biden. Here’s more on 2024 if you want to dive deeper: 

  • Why I’m So Optimistic We Will Win This November (Video, 4/16/24) – My latest overview of where we are in the 2024 election and why I am so optimistic about winning this year. The post also has a deep dive on recent, encouraging polling data. While it remains a close, competitive election, things have gotten bluer in recent weeks, and Trump no longer leads.
  • My Interview With the NYT – Here’s my interview with Adam Nagourney of the New York Times. It’s gotten a lot of attention. Do read. Lots of great stuff in here! Additionally, a new, fresh interview with me by Aaron Rupar just dropped. He’s calling it “Why the Trump campaign is in deeper trouble than you think.” It’s getting some attention and well worth your time. 
  • With Democrats, Things Get Better – The core Hopium presentation, this 30 minute deep diveon the progress America makes when Democrats are in the White House, has an extended section on the strong economic gains the country has made under Joe Biden. A must view for all the budding information warriors out there.

Friends, we have a long way to go in this election, and a lot of work to do, but in every way imaginable right now I would much rather be us than them. 

Trump’s Terrible April Keeps Getting Worse – The contrast between Joe Biden’s strong, successful leadership of the country, and him, the other guy, could not be more stark today – and all of this is happening just as many more voters are starting to tune into the election. Consider what has happened to Trump just this month: 

  • He was just loudly rebuked by his own Party on something that really matters to him, and failed to hold the line on Ukraine funding for his ally Putin (Boss Putin going to be really unhappy!!!)
  • He confirmed that he’s the most dangerous abortion extremist in America, putting him and his party on the side of the most extreme – and wildly unpopular – abortion restrictions in the nation all the while looking remarkable feckless, craven and idiotic
  • The long list of prominent and influential Republicans saying they will not vote for him, which now includes 2 former GOP Vice Presidents, a former GOP nominee, a former national party chair and dozens of high ranking officials who worked for him, just keeps getting longer and more politically perilous for him
  • He became the first former American President to become a defendant in a criminal trial, and so far so bad for the orange guy
  • Biden/Dems poll numbers are improving, his lead is gone, new polls suggest Kennedy may draw more from him than Biden (LOLOLOL!!!!!!) and we saw continued struggle for him in PA’s Republican Primary last night
  • Based on early April fundraising reports his he and his Party are being dramatically outraised by Democrats across the country
  • His scammy new company has seen its stock price drop from 79 to 30
  • He’s now trying to claim – desperately, pathetically – he never came out for repealing the ACA – another wildly unpopular position he has locked himself into this year
  • After a terrible week last week, and with all eyes on him, his raging dumpster fire of a campaign failed to pull off a simple campaign event in North Carolina on Saturday night

Remember: 

Joe Biden is a good President. The country is better off. We have a very strong case for re-election. 

The Democratic Party is strong, unified, raising tons of money and winning elections all across the country. 

And what do they have? They have Trump, the ugliest political things any of us has ever seen, leading a party far more a raging dumpster fire than a well oiled political machine.

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